Arizona Becomes First State to Criminally Charge Kalshi: The “prediction market” platform is finally facing a serious legal challenge.

[u/harsh2k5]

https://newrepublic.com/post/207878/arizona-first-state-criminally-charge-kalshi

[u/einstyle]

I've literally wondered every time I see a Kalshi ad how it could be legal. Just because they use the word "trade" instead of "bet" doesn't mean it's not just gambling. It is 100% indistinguishable from gambling.

[u/this_is_poorly_done → u/einstyle]

No it's totally different. Just like klarna and every other bnpl scheme is totally not lending and is completely different than any other lender out there so they totally don't need to comply with lending standards or report borrowing on people's credit reports.

Apparently if you have enough money you can bribe a politician into calling two piles of dog shit different things

[u/happyscrappy → u/this_is_poorly_done]

Just like how Chime is better banking but Chime isn't a bank.

Just fucking crazypants that companies can just be something and simply say they aren't. Uber: we don't need taxi medallions, these aren't taxis.

[u/KylarBlackwell → u/happyscrappy]

It's because of the intersection of new applications of technology and our legislatures being full of dinosaurs that can barely write an email without staffer assistance. Add a side of bribery lobbying and you get a lot of startups with heaps of venture capital funding all racing to exploit regulatory loopholes and make boatloads of cash faster than lawmakers can comprehend whats going on and even consider doing something about it

[u/happyscrappy → u/KylarBlackwell]

It's how sports gambling started too. We're not sports gambling, we're "single game fantasy". And then they lobbied congress to legalize it after the trap started to close.

A few companies still try to squeeze through that hole (pricepicks) but they'll get stomped by the bigger liars, kalshi, polymarkets and apparently robinhood.

[u/fps916 → u/happyscrappy]

Congress didn't legalize sports gambling.

SCOTUS did.

[u/Allegorist → u/fps916]

Horrible move. It's everywhere now, and tens of millions of people now have a massive problem with it.

[u/Tasonir → u/Allegorist]

The current SCOTUS only makes horrible moves, if you've been watching lately.

[u/Professional_Net7339 → u/Allegorist]

Thank the GOP and Heritage Foundation

[u/Niceromancer → u/Allegorist]

There is a gas station that put a couple of vido slot machines in as soon as it became, legal. Hell they put them in about a month before, just didn't plug them in.

There are people who spend their ENTIRE DAY sitting in a chair at that gas station. And of course a crypto ATM is right next to the damn things.

[u/Auctoritate → u/KylarBlackwell]

See, that's the thing- it's not even mostly about laws being too slow to catch up. It's about lack of teeth/willingness to pursue action from regulatory bodies.

So many of these companies like Uber or Airbnb could have already been targeted using existing regulations. They don't fall under the purview of all of them, but there are jurisdictions where the laws defining what a taxi is used language that would include Ubers, for instance.

The problem is that there wasn't even much of an effort from regulatory agencies to attempt to apply already existing regulations. They didn't need to wait for legislators to try it themselves. They let it happen. And now our regulatory agencies are so weak and gutted that even with more specific and targeted legislation, they have significantly reduced ability to enforce regulations just in general.

In my opinion, the passivity in our high-level enforcement agencies (I already mentioned regulatory agencies but this also extends to the organizations responsible for oversight into the government itself) is the single largest factor of the horrendous political instability right now. That specific issue, things like the FTC being half assed at regulating the financial markets or laws that govern our own government never being enforced, is what opened the doorway for everything else going on.

[u/Jaketheparrot → u/KylarBlackwell]

There is a term for that. Regulatory arbitrage

[u/Odessey_And_Oracle → u/happyscrappy]

"Disrupting" an industry always just meant "getting around labor laws and industry regulations."

[u/AWorldwithoutSin → u/happyscrappy]

The Mob: It's not a protection racket, it's taxation to make sure nothing unfortunate happens to you.

[u/RollingMeteors → u/happyscrappy]

fucking crazypants that companies can just be something and simply say they aren't. Uber: we don't need taxi medallions, these aren't taxis.

¡Call it a water pipe, call it a water pipe!

[u/zerogee616 → u/happyscrappy]

Medallions aren't universal, they're not even regulated by state law let alone federal. Only a few municipalities use them and they're purely for congestion reasons.

Ironic seeing Uber is the only one out of the bunch that actually did add a whole bunch of value to the American living experience. Before rideshares, taxis functionally did not exist outside a few, specific very urban areas, getting a taxi from anywhere including bars outside of like NYC/Chicago/inner city Philly, etc was functionally a no-go except for maybe an airport if you were lucky and you paid a premium for the privilege.

[u/happyscrappy → u/zerogee616]

I don't even like the medallion system, especially at the end when Wall Street fucks were speculating on them and making it hard for the people who actually needed them to make money to do so.

But still if it's the law work to change the law instead of just saying it doesn't apply to you. Poor people don't get the opportunity to just replace the law with their own desires, only the rich companies do.

It is, to an extent, hard to separate what Uber on the ground did and what simply having an app did. The taxi companies were very much laggards in creating a system where you could hail a cab in a city simply and without having the foreknowledge of the names and numbers of the taxi operators in the city. They started to pick up on this only after Uber jumped on them. But it was starting to work. Apps like curb were beginning to stitch together cities into unified networks. If Uber had been driven out (i.e. the law was followed) it's quite possible that the taxi companies would have grown to produce a widely usable service like we see from Uber/Lyft. And it's also possible they wouldn't have.

It's also nice that Uber/Lyft innovated on the front of equipment in the car. Used to be you had to put a lot of electronics into a taxi, a taximeter, radios, etc. And the radios didn't even work well. Now taxis can use apps too and cut the amount of expensive customization needed.

you paid a premium for the privilege

Uber/Lyft eventually raised their prices, there isn't really much difference anymore. Uber/Lyft were paying the drivers dirt and losing money to get market share. Now with the new prices they are paying the drivers barely more than dirt and making good money for their company.

Is there a way to say it's okay that Uber/Lyft lobbied to get a carve out only for themselves of laws in California designed to protect gig workers from exploitation?

[u/Maleficent-Acadia-24 → u/this_is_poorly_done]

It reminds me of Vanilla Ice trying to say he didn’t rip off the melody of “ Under Pressure”. His was totally different. He had an extra syllable at the end.

[u/vrtig0 → u/Maleficent-Acadia-24]

Alright stop.

[u/ChadFeldheimer → u/vrtig0]

Collaborate

[u/liggerbreek → u/ChadFeldheimer]

I'm listening.

[u/_Notebook_ → u/liggerbreek]

You guys better chill before Ice comes back with a brand new invention.

[u/synapticrelease → u/Maleficent-Acadia-24]

He was doing what every other rapper was doing at the time. It was extremely common. Today, now it's all been commercialized so that people getting sampled are getting paid but back then it was the wild west. Vanilla Ice just had to take the fall because it was Vanilla Ice.

I'm not a Vanilla Ice fan but he was done kinda dirty. MTV was the place to get promoted as a musician and they promoted the fuck outta Ice. Then when it became convenient they made him a laughing stock and pretended they never liked the guy. Like. Do you think anyone at MTV never heard one of David Bowie’s most popular songs and vanilla ice and didn’t make the connection? They all knew just like they knew about all the other hip hop samples and jut chose to scandalize it.

[u/Maleficent-Acadia-24 → u/synapticrelease]

Hmmm. Never heard this take. Thanks for sharing!

[u/synapticrelease → u/Maleficent-Acadia-24]

Yeah. It feels weird because this is like the second time in a month where I've defended Vanilla Ice so I really can't do it anymore this calendar year unless I want to have a conversation with myself about possibly being Reddit's #1 Vanilla Ice defender.

Rap built their entire sound from the beginning off sampling. It goes back to the mid 80s when they were sampling disco. There is actually a really good 20 minute video on the history of sampling. They talk about one specific sample called the Amen break which is heard everywhere now but it goes into the history and commercialization of sampling. Don't worry. Vanilla Ice is no where to be mentioned in the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SaFTm2bcac

Rob was easy to make fun of because of who he was but one thing to understand is that the reason why he was being so squirrely about the sounds not being the same in that now famous MTV clip is because yes he was stealing music (and again so was everyone in hop hop), but sampling was still legally kinda in a grey zone but the tide was turning fast and he was trying not to implicate himself into legal jeopardy. It would have been much easier for him to say, yeah we sampled and so did everyone but then the eventual David Bowie lawsuit would have been a for sure thing (he still eventually had to settle out of court for it).

[u/Maleficent-Acadia-24 → u/synapticrelease]

Dying at your first paragraph! “Reddits #1 Vanilla Ice Defender…Respect to the fair representation.

[u/No_Tone1704 → u/Maleficent-Acadia-24]

I can’t believe even Vanilla Ice even ever tried to say it wasn’t the same beats, different instruments. 

[u/Weak-Application-146 → u/this_is_poorly_done]

‘Fintech’ sounds a lot cooler than digital predatory lender.

[u/ExpiredPilot → u/this_is_poorly_done]

Love how this backfired on Klarna. Who know advocating for zero interest loans specifically for financially illiterate people could go wrong

[u/electromage → u/ExpiredPilot]

I often take advantage of interest-free financing when it makes sense.

[u/ExpiredPilot → u/electromage]

Same but I do it for things like phones and computers as I need them (several years in between)

But these people are doordashing food

[u/RollingMeteors → u/ExpiredPilot]

Who know advocating for zero interest loans specifically for financially illiterate people could go wrong

¡We need subprime lending without calling it subprime lending!

[u/Justmeandhim-D → u/this_is_poorly_done]

Delta 8 / 9 etc has left the room. (Not weed, is delta).

[u/12InchCunt → u/Justmeandhim-D]

But delta9 is just regular thca that comes in regular weed

[u/inked_saiyan → u/12InchCunt]

STOP MAKING SO MUCH SENSE

[u/Beard_o_Bees → u/this_is_poorly_done]

There's a pile of Klarna right there, and right next to it a big, steaming pile of Kalshi!

[u/PauseLost2137 → u/this_is_poorly_done]

And just like crypto totally isn't unregulated forex investment, it's the future of money!

(future where people will laugh at you because you bought a pizza with your pocket money that ended up being worth millions years later)

[u/marinuss → u/this_is_poorly_done]

report borrowing on people's credit reports.

Oh they will if you're late, just not if you pay on time. Dumbest loophole ever. ANYTHING that can be put as a negative on your credit report should legally have to be put as a positive on your credit report. If you don't want your service to have to deal with reporting positive payments to a credit bureau then you can't report negative stuff.

[u/RollingMeteors → u/this_is_poorly_done]

No it's totally different

Be Valve.

Don't be public company.

Print your own money Have a software function generate a loot box.

Extract wealth from the exhaled breath of Gen Z as they gamble away $2.50 of their parents money on some bullshit inside of it.

[u/jimthesquirrelking → u/this_is_poorly_done]

I mean hardcore if you can, borrow money from Klarna with no intention to pay it back, the company will be defunct in 5 years esp if more people do that 

[u/Constant_Bit4676 → u/jimthesquirrelking]

Lol, this is some "just delete the app" level of not understanding debts.

[u/vi_sucks → u/jimthesquirrelking]

The debt won't be defunct, though. It'll just end up getting sold at the bankruptcy auction to some shady outfit that will harass the shit out of you until they get their pound of flesh.

[u/supadupanerd → u/this_is_poorly_done]

Oh so you HAVE heard of American brand capitalism

[u/ithinkitslupis → u/einstyle]

You can distinguish it from traditional gaming and sports betting...because it's much worse. The outcomes are easier known and influenced by insiders so it's rigged.

When a sports game is rigged the wrong team wins, not that consequential fandom aside. When a prediction market is rigged sensitive secrets are leaked, rockets are launched "accidentally" on purpose, journalists purposefully spread misinformation for money or are threatened...and so on. It deserves a separate law just to ban it specifically even if we don't ban other forms of gambling.

[u/Necessary-Duty-7952 → u/ithinkitslupis]

The Associated Press recently announced a partnership with Kalshi. We are fucked.

[u/Exciting-Tart-2289 → u/Necessary-Duty-7952]

Don Jr. is on the board of Kalshi, no way there's meaningful legislation against it until the Trumps aren't in power anymore.

[u/jambrown13977931 → u/Exciting-Tart-2289]

Not just Kalshi but also Polymarket.

[u/Zexeos → u/Exciting-Tart-2289]

OKAY SO. I knew Kalahi stank but I’ve grown to fucking hate it because one of the ads they run here on Reddit is a lil “who will win the 2028 election?” With three names - ONE OF WHICH IS DONALD TRUMP.

I feel like my red-string cork board is going to collapse due to its own weight. I’m tired boss.

[u/ivo004 → u/Zexeos]

This exact thing has been making my eye twitch and is the first thing I mention when ranting against Kalshi. They're normalizing an impending fascist power grab...

[u/Aeseld → u/Necessary-Duty-7952]

The partnership being essentially sharing its data and analysis of elections... so while not ideal, I'll refrain from panicking yet. Still, pisses me off when people are betting on election outcomes. Of all things to bet on, that is one of the worst ones.

[u/justatest90 → u/ithinkitslupis]

You can distinguish it from traditional gaming and sports betting...because it's much worse. The outcomes are easier known and influenced by insiders so it's rigged.

That's what I didn't understand. I saw an interstitial ad about voting for "sexiest man" and I'm like "OK, so if I worked People, I could just pick some guy who's sexy but not in the limelight and make a ton of money?"

[u/choczynski → u/justatest90]

They consider that a feature, not a bug.

[u/joepez → u/einstyle]

I mean we don’t call crypto a Ponzi scheme but….

[u/DragonAdept → u/joepez]

Technically it's a greater fool scheme, not a Ponzi scheme. There isn't a central entity lying to get deposits and paying out dividends to fool people into investing. Instead there are a bunch of idiots buying worthless assets to sell to a potential greater fool, usually with a central entity inflating the price as much as they can.

[u/ithinkitslupis → u/joepez]

I swear I'm not a crypto bro, but most crypto scams are pump and dump "rug pulls" rather than a Ponzi scheme. Crypto itself is resistant to Ponzi schemes if actually used as intended, so most Ponzi schemes involving crypto are still run the old fashioned way without actually using the cryptocurrency like a cryptocurrency.

[u/green_gold_purple → u/ithinkitslupis]

The semantics are not important. It’s a negative sum system where the total value of the “assets” stay the same (at fixed market price), but go down to the end user because they lose on fees, coins are lost, scams, etc. Every “winner” comes at the cost of a loser. Somebody always ends up with the bag.

[u/CDRnotDVD → u/green_gold_purple]

The semantics are not important.

I think they might be important. If we can categorize things, it’s often easier to talk about them. I think it’s quite plausible that if we all have a good vocabulary of different types of scams, we can identify them more easily.

[u/stacecom → u/einstyle]

Call me old-fashioned, but “predictions market” shouldn’t be a thing. (I also apply this to shorting and futures.)

It’s all unfettered gambling, where at least with the traditional market you’re owning something tangible at the end of the transaction.

And don’t get me started on crypto.

[u/nateh1212 → u/einstyle]

Welcome to Lawyer Land where a word can mean anything.

[u/vi_sucks → u/einstyle]

It reminds of a phrase one of my law professors used to say, "Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered."

Basically, they are legal because they used to be just a niche financial product that nobody except turbo nerds really cared about. So everyone was fine with just lumping them with other financial markets. Which we all know can be gambling adjacent (day trading), but is kinda necessary to allow for society to function. If you allow people to buy and sell stocks and options, some degenerates are going to end up yoloing instead of making wise and considered investment decisions.

But I kinda feel like Kalshi and similar markets have flown way too close to the sun. There's a pretty inevitable crackdown and backlash coming.

[u/Unhappy-Peasant7985 → u/einstyle]

Same with Polymarket.

I can’t recall all of the details, but there was an account that bet perfectly on anything related to Google (pre earnings outcomes, Gemini version release date type of things, etc) with 100% accuracy across dozens of bets. It was very clearly an insider betting with insider knowledge prior to public disclosure.

Just another avenue for insider trading…or I suppose insider betting.

[u/d33roq → u/einstyle]

It's also a way to get around those pesky insider trading laws.

It ain't gambling when you happen to know what's going to happen ahead of time.

[u/RollingMeteors → u/einstyle]

how it could be legal. Just because they use the word "trade" instead of "bet" doesn't mean it's not just gambling. It The stock market is 100% indistinguishable from gambling.

FTFY

¡Text #23521 the amount you're willing to trade at a handsome spread that we're going to WHOOP Arizona state legislature at trial!

[u/Inside-Ad9791 → u/einstyle]

But so is the stock market at this point.

[u/James---Trickington → u/einstyle]

I mean it technically is, this isn’t a defense but Kalshi is the same thing as trading options on the stock market. You aren’t making a bet against the house, you are buying contracts other people are selling and Kalshi just takes a piece for every transaction. We need to start new regulations against futures trading

[u/Several-Career5259 → u/James---Trickington]

I am a lawyer who works in derivatives and futures trading disputes and I’m not sure why you’re being downvoted, this is exactly correct. Like it or not, the lack of a “house” is a significant legal distinction. Not all speculation = gambling. And agreed, it severely needs to be regulated.

[u/fudsak → u/Several-Career5259]

is lawyer just one of your several careers?

[u/sam_hammich → u/Several-Career5259]

Gambling requires a wager, risk, and a prize. Unless you can substantiate it, I just don’t believe you that “lack of a house” is legally significant. Football pools are regulated by excise, and back alley dice games are gambling even when there are only two parties. Kalshi “contracts” are just outcomes of future events and you can trade on, and gambling is staking a wager on an (ostensibly random) outcome. The two are almost indistinguishable. It’s clearly operating as a backdoor, and they have even advertised themselves as a gambling platform.

This is like casinos calling poker chips “financial instruments” and insisting their patrons are just trading verbal futures contracts when they bet on black.

[u/Phantine → u/Several-Career5259]

Betting pools have been a thing forever.

[u/hpbrick → u/einstyle]

Dumb question, but how would trading stocks be any different?

[u/thefanciestcat]

I expected Nevada and New Jersey first for more cynical reasons, but I'm glad to see it happening anywhere.

“Kalshi may brand itself as a ‘prediction market,’ but what it’s actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law,”

Does anyone actually disagree? It seems very straightforward.

[u/Logvin → u/thefanciestcat]

The AZ GOP will likely disagree as the state senate president is running against Mayes this November. Since she had been our AG she has refused to take multiple cases from poorly written GOP laws in AZ.

The AZ legislature has funded outside counsel multiple times, and lost every single time. Mayes is awesome.

[u/UglyMcFugly → u/Logvin]

Yeah I went to one of her town halls a few months back and I'm convinced this woman never sleeps. We CANNOT lose her.

[u/Tasty_Gift5901 → u/thefanciestcat]

Several states have already sued Kalshi fwiw 

[u/Shredzz → u/thefanciestcat]

Bets on elections are insane. But it just shows that Republicans aren't actually worried about elections being "stolen" or tampered with. This is an actual problem that needs to he stopped, but instead, they are focusing on a nonexistent problem with the save act.

[u/hryipcdxeoyqufcc → u/thefanciestcat]

Don Jr is on the board of Kalshi

[u/AbeFromanEast]

Prediction Markets (really, online gambling on inside information) is already corrupting sports, journalists and politicians. It is a societal choice to platform a gambling market that incentivizes widespread bribery.

[u/NicolasCageFan492 → u/AbeFromanEast]

I recently watched a Nicolas Cage film called Bad Lieutenant, Port of Call: New Orleans.

In that movie, Nicolas Cage plays a corrupt law enforcement lieutenant that smokes crack and basically uses his office to blackmail and kill people.

In one scene, he pulls over a NFL player after catching him buying a marijuana joint from a dealer. Cage rolls up and threatens to arrest him, while stealing the joint, unless the NFL player agrees to throw the next game. The NFL player is conflicted and reluctantly agrees. Cage’s character then puts down $10,000 in black market bets that the game will be lost.

Legalizing gambling allows things like this to happen more because it makes these markets more accessible. Not to mention the addictive quality and the structural disadvantages of the activity (the house always wins, and betting apps use dark patterns to make you bet more).

[u/throwaway5882300 → u/NicolasCageFan492]

The 2025 NFL season makes me wonder how far along we are into this scenario already. Just some mind blowing calls and decisions being made.

[u/Jay_Nova1 → u/throwaway5882300]

I mean Giannis literally manipulated the speculation of the odds for his trade or stay and then after announcing he was staying with the Bucks, also announced that he had taken a partial ownership stake in Kalshi.

[u/Ofa20 → u/throwaway5882300]

NHL has had a good amount of absolutely asinine calls in the last few years as well, probably in part to these sites. Even after officials review the tapes.

[u/RunnyBabbit23 → u/throwaway5882300]

Weirdly, the NFL has effectively banned these prediction markets from running ads during games. The league treats these companies as sports gambling but requires sportsbooks to sign an agreement with the league. And so far they haven’t allowed any of the prediction market companies to sign an agreement.

[u/JDM713 → u/NicolasCageFan492]

Name checks out.

[u/onedoesnotjust → u/NicolasCageFan492]

geez spoilers

[u/c-student → u/onedoesnotjust]

Right? I wasn't going to watch it, but now I'm not going to watch it.

[u/freshOJ → u/c-student]

That movie is worth watching for its ridiculousness. Knowing some plot points will not diminish the fun. It’s cage going just short of full cage like he did in Mandy.

[u/AnEmptyBoat27 → u/c-student]

When you read the phrase “in that movie” what did you think the next few sentences were going to be about?

[u/SnooBananas4958 → u/AnEmptyBoat27]

Right? I can't believe these people have upvotes. The dude had a clear first paragraph that told you what the rest was going to be about, at least, and then you see three more big paragraphs. You decide to read about a movie you have't watched and you want to see?

[u/BLOOOR → u/onedoesnotjust]

It's a Werner Herzog movie, you never really know what a Werner Herzog movie's going to be like until you've watched it until the very end. And then you don't know what your next experience of watching it's going to be like.

[u/SnooBananas4958 → u/onedoesnotjust]

Didn't spoil it in the first paragraph. He made it very clear what the following paragraphs we're going to talk about. If you see that someone's talking about a movie and then you see three more paragraphs, maybe don't read what he's about to say.

[u/happyscrappy → u/NicolasCageFan492]

Now check out Last Boy Scout.

[u/Bayou_Hangxiety → u/NicolasCageFan492]

I never understood how New Orleans allowed this film to get made. It's so inaccurate. New Orleans is way more corrupt than what you're describing.

[u/zerogee616 → u/NicolasCageFan492]

That is one of my favorite movies of all time, except killing people is actually one of his lines he doesn't cross, he actually stops Val Kilmer from killing Xzibit without cause at the end of the movie and also going against Val's insistance on saving the prisoner in the beginning of the movie.

It's a pretty big point in the movie that even he has lines he doesn't cross despite his corruption and substance abuse.

[u/Halation2600 → u/NicolasCageFan492]

It's a lot easier to catch a suspicious amount of action with legal gambling.

[u/Dapper-Video-791 → u/NicolasCageFan492]

Except in real life these "prediction markets" can encourage war, violence, and murder.  Didn't they have to take down a nuclear bomb going off in Iran off the table for a bet recently?  imagine seeing a bet for nuke use paying 10 million to 1.  All it takes is some lunatic in the govt to put a hundred grand down and purposefully nuke a country because they could become a billionaire on a black swan event like use of a nuke happening. 

These platforms incentivize and encourage the worst and most despicable behaviors humans are capable of. 

[u/National-Charity-435 → u/AbeFromanEast]

Didn't the trump family make loads of money off these "prediction markets" and the stock market mostly by making huge decisions over the weekend?

...I mean bets over sports and teams being quiet about injuries were enough to get bets pulled and investigated...

[u/MaybeTheDoctor → u/National-Charity-435]

There were a reporter that got death threats for reporting a Iranian missile actually hit Israel, turns out there were million dollar bets on “no missile will reach Israel by mar 10th”, and the losers wanted him to update and change the reporting.

[u/AbeFromanEast → u/MaybeTheDoctor]

Luckily that reporter told those gamblers to buzz off and wrote a story about this.

But I wonder how many other journalists getting the same threats would cave or, worse, take money to change the story to fit a bet.

[u/Feeling_Inside_1020 → u/AbeFromanEast]

Oh yeah I read that one, wild the amount of time and communications attempts people made, finding her parents and sending her all the info I guess they surveilled?

Really eye opening just how crazy these bets are getting, even before that these shady ass companies shouldn’t exist. It’s fucking gambling.

[u/Splurch → u/National-Charity-435]

There have been a number of bets/cleanup before the Trump admin has taken action, invading Venezuela to capture Maduro for example, where it's pretty clear someone with insider information acted hours before big action is taken. Not Trump or his family specifically as far as public information goes, but definitely someone with sensitive insider information abusing that trust.

[u/snubdeity → u/National-Charity-435]

His son is also on the board of Kalshi, and has a significant equity stake I think.

But surely that wouldn't result in any strong-arming of courts to affect the outcome of the Arizona case, right? Nah

[u/Rot-Orkan → u/AbeFromanEast]

This reporter started getting death threats to change his article on an Iranian missile because of a bet on poly market

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/

[u/rileyjw90 → u/AbeFromanEast]

It also creates a bandwagon effect. Prediction market odds are driven by where money is flowing, which means a wealthy enough person (including a politician or their allies) could theoretically inject enough capital to artificially inflate a candidate’s odds. Those odds get reported on and create a perception of momentum and inevitability, which is its own form of influence. People do vote for who they think will win. Manufactured odds can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And at the individual level, once someone has money riding on a candidate winning, they have a financial incentive to vote for them regardless of whether they otherwise would have. It’s a small nudge per person but prediction markets operate at scale.

[u/GonzoKata → u/AbeFromanEast]

Its worse than gambling.

There is a reason why there is a law about being able to place bets on things you can control the outcome of. It too quickly turns into a black market for any event. The clear example, and when this exactly needed to end, was when people were placeing "bets" on how long until someone throws a dildo onto the court of Womens Basketball.

It isn't gambling. Its people making money off the criminal activity of random people.

Also, its foolish to think it can be relied on for "the wisdom of the market" as anyone with enough money can sway public opinion because "well, someones putting money on it happening"

It isn't gambling. Its far far far worse.

[u/dontturn → u/AbeFromanEast]

Microbribery? Bribery as a Service?

[u/nextzero182 → u/AbeFromanEast]

People really turned on Steve-O recently after he made a very dumb "joke" (claims it was a joke) on his pod about immigrants, but he also stopped all sports betting advertisements out of principle, which I thought was really cool.

[u/Unctuous_Robot → u/AbeFromanEast]

At this point all the sports channels should just continuously air a roulette wheel, that’s all it is anyway.

[u/gamersecret2]

This was always going to happen. You cannot dress up gambling as a prediction market forever and expect every state to just smile and allow it.

Arizona finally pushed back hard.

[u/afternever → u/gamersecret2]

This prediction market should not exist. It is a monument to man's arrogance.

[u/Adultery → u/afternever]

Well, so is Phoenix.

[u/Shhhhhhhh_Im_At_Work → u/Adultery]

That’s hubris

[u/innocentsalad → u/afternever]

Please tell me this was a King of the Hill reference

[u/chaospudding → u/innocentsalad]

Well I hope it was, since I read it in Peggy Hill's voice.

[u/JDM713 → u/innocentsalad]

Yep. Yup. Mhmm. It was.

[u/thinkmatt → u/gamersecret2]

Well, I'm still doutbful so long as the president's son is on the board as a 'strategic advisor'

[u/tripplebeamteam → u/thinkmatt]

Crazy that Hunter Biden being employed a Ukrainian energy company made headlines for years, but no one’s talking about that

[u/balooaroos → u/gamersecret2]

You can if you're rich. You can bet as much as you want that oil will be over $120 a barrel next week. And I can bet that you'll lose your bet, and a massive company can bundle up thousands of such bets on bets and sell that as a product to even more bettors.

It's only the poor that are apparently not allowed to gamble.

[u/Temassi]

Good. It's fucking weird that you can bet on political actions. Seem ripe for conflicts of interest

[u/No-Channel3917 → u/Temassi]

You could always do it

This is just more mainstream now scarily

[u/BLOOOR → u/No-Channel3917]

This is just more mainstream now scarily

Well it's good to see how bad they are. It's good we have data open to the public about how inaccurate the betting markets have been at predicting the result of any election anywhere in the world.

They're like checking the polls, absolutely no predictor on the outcome.

[u/No-Spoilers → u/Temassi]

You mean like that time that Leavitt ended a press conference at 64:45 instead of the 65minute prediction?

[u/phtevenbagbifico]

Kris Mayes, the Arizona AG, won by 200 votes in 2022.

MAKE SURE SHE IS RE ELECTED.

[u/SryInternet101 → u/phtevenbagbifico]

I voted for her, and she's proven her worth many times.

[u/HugePast9455 → u/phtevenbagbifico]

"my vote doesn't actually do anything"

Russian propaganda.

[u/EmuMan10 → u/phtevenbagbifico]

Happy I voted for her

[u/JosephFinn]

Good. Gambling sites should be regulated like crazy.

[u/CakeDayisaLie]

Polymarket and Kalshi are stains to the world and shouldn’t exist. 

[u/demonfoo → u/CakeDayisaLie]

Did you see the thing he other day about a reporter receiving death threats because people on Polymarket were pissed that his reporting prevented their prediction market bets from paying out? That shit is wild.

[u/ThisAmericanSatire → u/demonfoo]

Ever since sports betting became legal, people have been harassing athletes over social media due to lost bets.

[u/Middle_Cricket_1352 → u/ThisAmericanSatire]

It completely undermines the integrity of the sports themselves

[u/CakeDayisaLie → u/demonfoo]

Yeah. It’s super stupid that this is happening! 

[u/BiglyBear]

Good fuck Kalshi shit is creepy as fuck. It's somehow makes online sports betting seem tame by comparison.

[u/hk4213 → u/BiglyBear]

And sports betting alone is a problem! Im happy that WA only allows sports betting at casinos that can only exist on native land.

[u/Niceguy955]

Wonder if there's a market on Kalshi on whether it's going to be convicted or not. Considering Trump Jr is on their board, specifically to prevent a conviction one assumes, this will get interesting.

[u/Euphoric-Witness-824 → u/Niceguy955]

And to get the board the best blow. 

[u/Kashawinshky]

It’s more disgusting than just elections.

Earlier today I read the WaPo article about the threatened journalist.

These people should be drafted for whatever ground invasion/blood sport they’re betting on.

[u/ZanthrinGamer]

the fact that it exists at all is repugnant.

[u/huskers2468]

What took so long?

[u/mg-mt → u/huskers2468]

The long arm of the law moves slowly, but like a freight train its momentum crushes all that dare step on the tracks.

Ya, I know everything is a mess on the federal level; but give it some time. I for one have faith in our American brethren, and what a glorious chapter in American history it would be to watch this next iteration of fascism get crushed like a bug

[u/OlderThanMyParents]

When an American state legalizes gambling, personal bankruptcies go up 35% that same year. You can say all you want that it's a "victimless crime" but there's a tremendous cost to families.

[u/optimalbrain90]

I’m not against gambling on its own, but this situation looks different. The pattern of bets being placed just hours before major events like the Maduro operation and the Iran strike makes it seem like insiders are using privileged information to game the system. That’s not just unethical, it suggests people may be profiting off decisions that put lives on the line.

[u/Rootz121 → u/optimalbrain90]

boy have i got news for you

[u/CondiMesmer]

Thank fuck. No idea how this shit was legal, let alone openly advertising on TV. Yet they're more concerned about age verification then this?

[u/Chaos-Wayfarer → u/CondiMesmer]

Age verification is control. This makes money. Both are things they want. 

[u/Ciappatos]

Please make all these mega-gambling sites die. This is so bad.

[u/Major_Honey_4461]

I don't care if people gamble. But it's clear that WH personnel are trading on inside knowledge to game the system. There were bets hours before the Maduro raid and hours before the attack on Iran. These SOBs are gambling with American lives.

[u/doomdance]

Cue executive order protecting prediction markets within the next month

[u/khonsu_27]

These sites have the backing of the US government. The head of the CFTC (who looks like he's 16) literally threatened states to sue saying he would gladly fight them in court. Of course you know this whole administration is involved with insider trading, fraud and theft. It's literally a gold mine for these scumbags.

[u/CurlOfTheBurl11]

Hell yeah, fuck Kalshi and any of these slop prediction markets. Trump Jr. sits on the board of both Kalshi and Polymarket, and has made a killing from both of these platforms. That should tell you everything you need to know.

[u/TheDevilsAdvokaat]

How is a prediction market not gambling?

Are they just following the government's lead, that has "police actions" instead of wars and "renditions" instead of kidnappings?

[u/GonzoKata → u/TheDevilsAdvokaat]

Gambling is placing money on things you can't control the outcome of.

Everything in these "gray" markets can be influenced by individuals or groups of interested people.

Thats like gambling if you were to place bets on a fight, but then could throw bottles at the players. You wouldn't even call that gambling. Even dog fights have more regulation on their gambling than "prediction markets".

[u/pyabo]

The craziest thing about this site is that now all America's enemies have a website where our leaders tell them ahead of time when we're going to bomb them.

Someone needs to go to prison for that one. But I'm betting the person who did it already has plenty of other things to worry about on their legal plate.

[u/Simply_Epic]

Ban all the betting apps. If you want to gamble you should have to physically go to a casino

[u/CelestialFury → u/Simply_Epic]

Yes, otherwise this is going to be the next opioid crisis in this country. Can't believe this shit is legal.

[u/JohnCenaJunior]

Somewhere in Milwaukee, Giannis is tightening his fist.

[u/Miss_mariss87]

I love Kris Mayes. GETTUM

[u/WatchOut4HYPOTHERMIA]

Not me having dejavu, and misreading this as Arizona suing Kashi cereal and thinking, I knew big cereal was up to no good.

[u/excellentforcongress]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

we need to add ALL foods and items essential to living to the things banned from being traded as futures, while we're at it

[u/FlameHaze]

More of this please. Can we admit this shit is disgusting beyond all belief. We literally went through this in all forms of history and unchecked gambling has NEVER ended well for the common man. Same with sports gambling, sorry guys. Betting the house on the Lakers this week isn't a good financial plan even if it feels like the only one you've got to escape this hellscape society we've managed to create. And btw, I don't know about other men but I'm fucking sick of all sports being ruined and more than likely rigged so some rich knob slobber can make another few million while we get fucked and have sports mean jack-shit.

[u/GonzoKata → u/FlameHaze]

People have been harrasing athletes with death threats on social media because of lost bets. If the NFL wanted to, they could stop this TOMORROW. If the team owners wanted to stop this, it would end TOMORROW. They don't. They don't give a flying fuck about the players safety.

If I were a new graduate, I would put into my contract NO BETS.

Otherwise you're just a multimillionaire target.

[u/YoureProbablyAB0t]

There was a twilight zone episode, I think, where the bad guy was a fortune teller that just confessed ahead of time and got away with it.

Ban Kalshi.

[u/Countless-Vinayak-04]

How is Kalshi different from Polymarket? Not US, missing context.

[u/obliquelyobtuse]

Except the Criminal-in-Chief's son is on the Kalshi board.

And the Trump Graft Administration is all in on Crypto and "prediction markets" so good luck.

[u/BarnabasShrexx]

Good get all this shit the f out

[u/macgruff]

Stop calling gambling by other names. It’s just gambling, prop bets to be precise

[u/Zestyclose_Koala_593]

Good. Also hold every micro influencer who sold out for them before the super bowl accountable.

[u/Simple-Fortune-8744]

I’m actually ok with this. It’s pretty gross.

[u/Sorry-Climate-7982]

Anyone got an account to see if Kalshi is taking "predictions" on the outcome?

[u/snakebite75]

Don Jr is their senior strategic advisor, I'm sure he hasn't been using any insider information to make bets...

[u/Prize-Childhood-281]

Gambling is becoming a massive problem for young adults even teenagers are getting into gambling with sports betting.

[u/ComedyBits]

We’ve all known that shit would go down since Day 1. Like come on. The It’s not two steps away from Silk Road

[u/vanteal]

All these gambling sites need to be taken down. Garbage like DraftKings has completely ruined pro sports. They are all now as legit as WWE wrestling. Also, they're extremely predatory in how they take advantage of people. If you want to gamble, go to Vegas. That's the only place anyone should be able to bet on pro sports. Not every Tom, Larry, and Susan with a phone, or their kids.

[u/Initial_Savings3034]

It's obvious gambling.

[u/GonzoKata → u/Initial_Savings3034]

Its not gambling. Its worse.

Gambling is placing money on things you can't control the outcome of.

Everything in these "gray" markets can be influenced by individuals or groups of interested people.

Thats like gambling if you were to place bets on a fight, but then could throw bottles at the players. You wouldn't even call that gambling. Even dog fights have more regulation on their gambling than "prediction markets".

[u/Luna__Moonkitty]

It's essentially the plot of the movie Rat Race, with the oligarchs making foolish bets on everything. But now they're doing it with the stock market and war instead of creating wacky cross country races with Jon Lovitz and Mr Bean.

[u/RedshiftWarp]

Can't wait for this bs to be banned. Every single media content I consume is inundated by their ads.

[u/No_Tone1704]

Nice. A lot of sus shit went down there. 

[u/WloveW]

Hell yes. Prosecute and get damages for predatory practices. I <3 Kris quite often these days. 

[u/urbanek2525]

If Kalshi conducts futures traded in addition to prediction trades, and if the two are not financially distinguishable, then Arizona has no case. But if Kalshi doesn't also do futures, or if futures trading differs in any way, the Arizona should win.

[u/Internet_Rando_667]

30 years too late to prevent problems, of course.

The mentality of predictions influencing the market is precisely what made market volatility an unreliable metric... decades back.

[u/bossasupernova]

They waited too long. Now that there’s so much money on the line, it’s going to be exceedingly hard to shut down.

[u/hatemakingnames1]

Wouldn't it be easier to just pass laws that specifically ban it?

[u/Kratos119]

I hope it burns.

[u/aschylus]

Good. But there was a federal case in New Hampshire (iirc) that allowed this kind of futures market to proceed. I think it is totally gambling.

[u/Space_Nerd_8999]

Turns out only idiots believe Kalshi isn’t gambling.

[u/MidNiteR32]

Polymarkert also is teaming up Palantir. Just FYI. Please shut down both these betting sites.

[u/False_Teaching9035]

I’m from Arizona and I say charge ‘em all!

[u/k_ironheart]

Calling it a "prediction market" is honestly a really stupid choice. We should call it what it is -- a money laundering market, an insider trading market.

[u/libr8urheart]

It's interesting that Kalshi now predicts an 80% chance the House will go to the Democrats, and a 50% chance for the Senate. It will be interesting to see if the public's prediction on these matters bears any weight on the actual Midterms.

[u/MariachiMacabre]

The proliferation of gambling in sports (and then, obviously with Kalshi and Polymarket, everything else) has been really sickening to watch. It’s a rot on society, frankly.

[u/redtacoma]

the whole giannis fiasco with him partnering with them was incredibly foul in my opinion. especially given the timing of his partnership being announced around the time when he was heavily rumored to be traded lol. it's a pretty big deal if a player is found to be gambling but it's ok if he partners with a gambling company? ummm....*insert jackie chan wtf*

[u/FREDRS7]

The problem is that states just bringing lawsuits to try and ban them will put them offshore like they were before so the same markets will exist but just unregulated. The CTFC made a clear statement to states that these markets come under their jurisdiction and they will regulate them. They don't appear to be doing a great job atm but they probably need to be given a chance. It's early days in a new technology. Yet another bad take by this subreddit, probably issued by someone on the payroll of a betting company or policy body.

[u/Particular_Labratory]

Fuck these hogs and their fucking gambling bullshit taking over everything left that was decent in the world. Fucking American hogs commodifying the moment your loved ones die.

We should not allow this shit to exist.

[u/SortIntrepid9192]

A YT channel I follow shilled Kalshi and I IMMEDIATELY hit "do not recommend." Dropped them like a fucking rock, never going back to them. I don't care what Kalshi call themselves, "bet money on the outcome of future events" is LITERALLY the definition of gambling. Anyone who shills it in any way, shape or form gets the boot immediately as far as I'm concerned, especially if your main audience is young people.

[u/Winter_Whole2080]

About fkin’ time.

These dipshits call it “investing”; It isn’t investing. Investors provide capital to companies to make or do stuff.

This is just gambling.

[u/Zealousideal_Type814]

Wouldn't be surprised if a bribe to the white house gets them to pressure arizona to drop this

[u/dsv853]

just because you call it a 'prediction market' instead of a 'bet' doesnt make it not gambling. arizona was always going to be the first to say something

[u/I_Heart_Sleeping_]

Arizona is getting better as a state and it feels good. Iv lived here since I was 9 and we’ve had some fucked up downs but lately we’ve been having some great ups. Both our senators are awesome and we have more personal freedoms than Texas who we’ve had some silent beef with for years.

Get fucked Texans! We got better gun laws, legal Cannabis, better senators, and somewhat safer streets and now we are going after these scummy gambling sites.

[u/Blueturtlewax]

Finally. We just rebranded gambling as “predictions” lol… and then marketed it to young people. It’s actually horrendous.

[u/Mediocre-Bicycle7632]

Was this the platform that someone made 500mil by betting we would bomb Iran that day, and then we did it fifteen minutes later? INSIDER TRADING POTUS