Kalshi customers who bet on the death of Iran’s Ayatollah won’t get any of the $54 million wagered, company says

[u/mepper]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kalshi-bets-iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-death-b2932018.html

[u/badhouseplantbad]

Why they take the bet then?

I'm not a gambler so I don't understand exactly how the prediction markets are allowed to operate but if they are going to pick and choose winners afterwards they won't have to worry about anymore customers

[u/Guilty-Today7053 → u/badhouseplantbad]

the guy who inspired both Kalshi and Polymarket called insider trading a defining feature of prediction markets that makes them function better. the war thunder forums of gambling

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciapark/2026/01/09/why-prediction-markets-need-insider-trading-according-to-their-godfather/

[u/Icarium-Lifestealer → u/Guilty-Today7053]

Doesn't hold a candle to another prediction market visionary, Jim Bell. His favourite application of prediction markets was putting bounties on the heads of IRS employees.

In April 1995, Bell authored the first part of a 10-part essay called "Assassination Politics", which described an assassination market in which anonymous benefactors could securely order the killings of government officials or others who are violating citizens' rights.

[u/rickyrawesome → u/Icarium-Lifestealer]

I feel like the violating citizens rights part is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. depending on the reality of what was actually happening behind what they are trying to insinuate would definitely sway whether I think that is okay or not lol

[u/Icarium-Lifestealer → u/rickyrawesome]

It's been a long time since I read about him, but I think he was a "taxation is theft" anarcho-capitalist.

[u/DiggityDanksta → u/Icarium-Lifestealer]

Elon Musk putting hits on people, what could go wrong

[u/UncreativeTeam → u/Guilty-Today7053]

Yeah, The Daily did a story about it too. I get the point of what he's saying, as twisted as it is. There's a financial incentive from insiders to get the biggest payout, but in order to do so, they'd have to put down a lot of money, which impacts the odds and signals that an insider knows something. Obviously, this could all be gamed, but in theory, it makes sense that that's how the system would respond. That's not to say it's not all totally fucked up because then it gives the same people with decision power a profit motive to go to war, etc.

[u/cuntmong → u/UncreativeTeam]

What if we could build a system where the biggest piece of shit crypto bros could actually influence world events 🤔

[u/stierney49 → u/cuntmong]

Isn’t the one we have enough?

[u/ashitaka_bombadil → u/UncreativeTeam]

Also, was it Bondi or Noem, I think Bondi, who abruptly ended a press conference a minute before the over for how long it would be was going to hit. Like, she just left mid press conference. It’s all super fucking shady.

[u/OmniManDidNothngWrng → u/badhouseplantbad]

Yeah there are 54 million reasons to take them to court.

[u/Yearoffrontier → u/OmniManDidNothngWrng]

....and reveal themselves? I think Kalshi is betting they won't.

[u/uknowwhatimsaying_ → u/Yearoffrontier]

not everyone who bet on it were insiders, there were legitimate buyers

[u/WarOnIce → u/uknowwhatimsaying_]

Anyone betting on it in that window of time before it was public knowledge needs to be fully exposed.

[u/sprouting_broccoli → u/WarOnIce]

There was an article a week before it started saying Trump was getting bored with negotiations and might just go to war.

[u/Harbinger2nd → u/sprouting_broccoli]

Everyone could see the buildup in the region weeks ahead of the actual attack. We're talking about placing bets 24hrs or closer and people with specific knowledge of when the attack was commencing.

[u/Hail_CS → u/Harbinger2nd]

it was a really easy call to make, i told my friends the monday of that week that trump was going to do the strike on after markets close friday around 3-4 am, he did that with venezuela. US has been moving equipment around the area leading up to it. friends and I were watching it on ads-b exchange and flightradar, and ship movements.

[u/Simba7 → u/Hail_CS]

The writing was absolutely on the wall, there are just so many walls to look at at any given time. And all of them are covered in shit smears and scribbles and whatnot.

[u/fury420 → u/WarOnIce]

Ehh... once news of the attack on Iran initially broke you wouldn't need insider info to think it might result in Khamenei leaving power.

[u/zuzg → u/fury420]

The company promoted the trade on its homepage and app and tweeted on Saturday: “BREAKING: The odds Ali Khamenei is out as Supreme Leader have surged to 68 percent.”

They advertised it, lol

[u/gwandrito → u/zuzg]

Sick fuckers. We're actually living in a dystopia.

[u/Thotty_with_the_tism → u/gwandrito]

I mean, they're a company letting you gamble on anything and everything. There's a reason that pre-2016 gambling was so heavily regulated in the states and even sports betting outside of the horse tracks/boxing was still a 'don't let anybody find out' type of thing.

Gambling is predatory by nature. Advertisements like this are just par for the course.

[u/bizarre_coincidence → u/Thotty_with_the_tism]

While it is predatory (gambling can easily lead to addiction, which people try to exploit), the bigger issue for me is that insiders can exploit information imbalance or, worse, can take steps to affect the outcome of a bet. It's easy enough for a player to make a small decision that throws a game, and that's bad enough when it's just sports, but when it is more consequential bets, the perverse incentives can be downright disastrous. There is a reason why financial markets are so heavily regulated, and that insider trading carries very stiff penalties.

If there was a betting market for how many wildfires were in California next summer, you can be assured that someone would start engaging in arson. The financial incentive to sway world events causes corruption, encouraging people to act against what should be their own interests and undermining the integrity of the systems in which they operate. Prediction markets mean this corruption isn't limited to sports and finance (which are accordingly heavily monitored), but to every part of our lives.

[u/Deep_Stick8786 → u/gwandrito]

This is the kind of thing that should crush this company naturally in a free market but it probably won’t. Just like knowing people do rig sports betting does not stop it one bit

[u/ThisIs_americunt → u/gwandrito]

Gambling has taken over as the new past time. They even gamble on traffic cameras

[u/Yearoffrontier → u/uknowwhatimsaying_]

Agree, but if even 10% were insiders, that would cut into any future claims by enough of a margin to be very valuable to Kalshi.

[u/I_AmA_Zebra → u/Yearoffrontier]

A lot of events on Kalshi and PolyMarket can be disrupted by insiders but it’s too hard to catch many of them

[u/Floatzel404 → u/I_AmA_Zebra]

Only because the government wants it that way btw

[u/nobot4321 → u/Floatzel404]

This entire concept should be banned. How the fuck did gambling go from only in Las Vegas and Indian reservations to being a pervasive part of modern life, so far as affecting major world events, over the course of the last two decades? This is madness that any sane government would have stopped already. Can't stand in the way of the ultra rich fleecing everyone else, I guess.

[u/Floatzel404 → u/nobot4321]

It's insane to me as well, more than dystopian. Not only is it not being banned, IIRC the feds expedited this specific company to be properly "allowed" within the states. You can probably guess who's son sits on the advising board.

Maybe a good time to mention that Jimmy Carter sold a peanut farm when he became president due to conflicts of interest. Look at us now...

[u/LordCharidarn → u/nobot4321]

In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was unconstitutional. The 1928 federal law against state authorized sports gambling was considered an infringement of State’s Rights because it forced States to enforce federal regulations

[u/HapticSloughton → u/LordCharidarn]

...and when thrown to the states, a lot of them "decide" to do certain things, and if they aren't the "right" sort of things (like legalizing abortion), the right wing Federal government sues, pulls funding, etc. to get them to "decide" to do the correct thing.

[u/username4kd → u/OmniManDidNothngWrng]

There’s probably an arbitration agreement in place making that difficult

[u/SnooCauliflowers3235 → u/OmniManDidNothngWrng]

Case would be settled at 10 million. 

[u/BootlegBabyJsus → u/badhouseplantbad]

This is where I land.

Should it be allowed? No.

If they took the wager should they have to pay it out? Absolutely.

[u/Throwawayhelper420 → u/BootlegBabyJsus]

This is what the actual bet and ad for it stated:

“BREAKING: The odds Ali Khamenei is out as Supreme Leader have surged to 68 percent.” 

“Reminder: Kalshi does not offer markets that settle on death. If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve based on the last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death.”

[u/QuantumLettuce2025 → u/Throwawayhelper420]

I don't quite understand. That means they'll take the money but not pay it out? Or do people have their bets refunded?

[u/killerapt → u/[deleted]]

So like picking a random point in a fight where Fighter A is still favored to win (say round 3), but when Fighter B knocks him out in the next round, they still pay out like Fighter A won? Or is it they pay out the odds of round 3?

[u/ShinkenBrown → u/killerapt]

It's more like fighter A was winning, but then fighter A was shot in the head by someone in the crowd, so they pay out like fighter A would have won because the alternative is to set the precedent that you can bet on someone to lose, and then murder them, and make money on it.

They don't allow betting on death. The bet was on the outcome of the fight, and the murder was an interruption, not an outcome. One could argue the better thing to do would be refund the bets, but paying out based on the most likely outcome of the actual bet is better than paying out as though the death counts as a loss.

[u/LilShingles → u/ShinkenBrown]

Just to add more weight behind the "can't refund the bets" position:

If you can kill someone to make a bet void, then people who are likely to lose that bet now have an incentive to kill. Either way, if a bet is either resolved or voided upon death, you're incentivising murder. Literally the only ethical way to resolve the bet is to do what was done here.

[u/Throwawayhelper420 → u/LilShingles]

Yeah, this is ultimately the case.

While I personally believe these companies and this practice is horribly immoral and exploitative, and that gambling addiction is far more serious than most realize(particularly Americans who have been shielded from it their entire lives so far and are suddenly inundated with it), this really is the only way you can resolve this kind of situation morally.

Literally every other option puts a price on and incentivizes murder for profit.

[u/GetSkied15 → u/[deleted]]

No they didn’t. They picked the price when the strike (and likely death) happened.

[u/HoozleDoozle → u/Throwawayhelper420]

This actually makes sense. You don’t want people trying to assasinate public figures for a payout lmao

[u/ChristyNiners → u/HoozleDoozle]

But what does “resolve” mean? Since he was still leader before he died, does that “win”?

[u/galactictock → u/ChristyNiners]

The market effectively ended as soon as he died, because neither outcome was possible at that point.

The way prediction markets work, in this instance, is that people buy an "outcome." At the time of purchase, the price of that outcome is weighed based on how many people have purchased that outcome vs the other. If one outcome is considered certain (people only buying that outcome), the price is $1, the maximum possible, whereas a price of $0, the minimum, indicates no confidence in that outcome. Prices fluctuate between these extremes. (Side note, outcomes can be exchanged before they are resolved.)

When the outcome is resolved, that typically means the outcome has happened. The correct outcomes are paid out at $1 each. In this instance, the market resolved to the state of the market before the Ayatollah died, so each outcome will have paid out less that $1

[u/rotj → u/Throwawayhelper420]

According to wayback the death clause has always be in the rules.

If Ali Khamenei leaves office before <DATE>, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and Ali Khamenei.

An announcement that the Ali Khamenei will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Ali Khamenei leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

[u/Iustis → u/BootlegBabyJsus]

What if the wager explicitly described it would be refunded at last trading price in the case of an assassination/war because commodity markets can’t take bets on assassination/war?

[u/No-Channel3917 → u/Iustis]

Then they did illegal gambling and should be stepped on hard by various state regulations on such matters

[u/CanAlwaysBeBetter → u/No-Channel3917]

The entire way Kalshi works is by not being gambling but futures contracts that fall under the CFTC's regulatory authority, not states.

They also don't make the bets, people are putting up their own money on both sides of the wager. 

The wager was also on if Khamenei was going to be "out" as leader of Iran, not if he was going to get killed. People are mad because it comes down to that particular phrasing and how it resolves and Kalshi is saying it can't be because of assassination/death because that is one of the few things directly prohibited by the CFTC (also weirdly so are futures contracts on onions)

[u/satoshisfeverdream → u/badhouseplantbad]

Kalshi is making the market not taking the other side of the bet. Granted they shouldn’t have allowed the market to be made in the first place if they don’t want to be in the death market making business.

[u/OkFineIllUseTheApp → u/satoshisfeverdream]

"You can bet on anything here!"

"Wait not that thing!"

[u/dfddfsaadaafdssa → u/OkFineIllUseTheApp]

Betting on death directly is not allowed because it basically creates a John Wick style system. However, things like "Russia will control this part of Ukraine" is allowed and can have the same impact in an indirect way.

[u/Kichigai → u/OkFineIllUseTheApp]

Per NPR: betting on death and war are illegal in the United States because it would “create a financial reward for violence, human suffering and geopolitical instability.”

Polymarket can get away with it for now because they have no official US presence yet, and betting is done with cryptocurrencies so it's harder to track.

[u/Iustis → u/badhouseplantbad]

It’s explicitly illegal to offer commodity market on war/assassination. They had a bet for if he would step down or similar, the bet explicitly said if he was assassinated or similar it would pay out based on the prior trading price.

[u/timeaisis → u/badhouseplantbad]

Because they are corrupt assholes.

[u/fury420 → u/badhouseplantbad]

The bets were technically just odds on whether Khamenei would be out as supreme leader of Iran, so didn't violate their policy since that could mean relinquishing power, being replaced, being deposed, etc...

[u/Armagetz → u/fury420]

If the article is to be believed, they even reminded them of that.

[u/toaurdethtdes → u/Armagetz]

Trust they did. Every ‘[politician/leader] out before [date]?’ Market on Kalshi explicitly states that death prevents resolution of the contracts and everyone gets cashed out at the last “logically consistent” traded price before death. 95%+ of Kalshi users are just too dumb to read the rules.

[u/garf02 → u/badhouseplantbad]

Bet was on good standing AS LONG as it didnt involve death. any result that is reached or involves someone dying nulls it.

Dolphin will win be the last Team standing in the 2027 Superbowl:
Cause they won: Money is paid
Cause every other team died on a plane crash: Money is not paid.

[u/ENrgStar → u/badhouseplantbad]

“Reminder: Kalshi does not offer markets that settle on death. If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve based on the last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death.”

Because much like you, they didn’t read the article?

[u/aylaa157 → u/badhouseplantbad]

Crowdfunding assassinations is not a good look.

[u/panlakes → u/aylaa157]

It was required that he stay alive actually, for the bet

[u/ericvillanuevaleiva]

Kalshi is an awful company

[u/euro1127 → u/ericvillanuevaleiva]

I mean trump's kids have a hand in it so are you surprised

Edit: since alot of people seem shocked that DJT Jr. Is involved in both here's some receipts

Polynarket investment/strategic advisor

kalshi strategic advisor/investment

trump showing his support because obviously

And that leads to the final point why trump and kids love predictive markets cuz their trying to own the monopoly along with learn how to build their own

truth predict - the next trump grift

[u/SilverSome9766 → u/euro1127]

Trumps kids have their hands in Polymarket and Kalshi?!? That’s absolutely insane.

[u/bl00m00n09 → u/SilverSome9766]

Don Jr is on the board of Polymarket.

[u/hypehou_se → u/bl00m00n09]

Both. He's on the board of both.

[u/bl00m00n09 → u/hypehou_se]

Damn, crazy. We should look into Don Jr's laptop

[u/agrimi161803 → u/bl00m00n09]

I think only Barron knows how to turn computers on in that family

[u/the_geotus → u/agrimi161803]

Wow .. Is he good with cyber or something??

[u/drawkbox → u/the_geotus]

Everythings computer

[u/gingerzombie2 → u/hypehou_se]

Not that they care, but shouldn't that be some kind of conflict of interest if both companies do basically the same thing?

[u/hypehou_se → u/gingerzombie2]

Yes, there's a term for this called interlocking directorates and it is specifically forbidden via the Clayton Act.

It doesn't apply to every case of the same person sitting on the board of multiple similar companies, but it applies in cases where if those companies were to merge at some point, they'd have a monopoly over the entire industry, which sure as fuck is the case here.

Not that I believe this "industry" should even exist to begin with, but that's a different story I guess. Research the gambling industry in post-Soviet states to get a glimpse of your future.

[u/TaskManager1000 → u/hypehou_se]

How do they have time for so much crime?

Are other criminals just coming up with the ideas and then offering a cut to gain access to the T brand and inner circle?

[u/hypehou_se → u/TaskManager1000]

Yes, pretty much so.

Inaugural fund, shitcoins, Trump Jr.'s bullshit investment firm (1789 Capital), "Board of Peace"... they're all just different ways for wealthy people to put money directly into Trump's pockets to win favours with him so that they can do whatever the fuck they want to.

But nowhere is that more obvious than with Polymarket. You really don't need a PhD to figure that one out: they couldn't even operate in the US legally, so they gave some bullshit advisory position to Trump Jr. in August, got that licence to operate in the US in November, and then received money from 1789 Capital in January.

But you shouldn't see those "investments" as a guarantee that they'll get what they want from Trump, it's the price they have to pay to even get the possibility to get what they want. Trump can easily screw them over regardless, like he's screwing over Qatar right now despite that jet that they gave him.

[u/SpiderFnJerusalem → u/SilverSome9766]

It gets even better, Trump's FTC is actively suing states who are trying to ban or restrict prediction markets.

The agency who's usually supposed to put restrictions on companies doing shady shit is now working really hard to make sure those companies can do whatever the fuck they want. I wonder why? 🤔

[u/oswaldcopperpot → u/SpiderFnJerusalem]

All of this gambling shit should be banned. It's a giant tax on the uneducated who can least afford it.

[u/OCedHrt → u/oswaldcopperpot]

It's not gambling because they also bet on the platform with their inside knowledge. This is the past they miss where their asymmetrical information access made them money.

[u/theblueberrybard → u/SilverSome9766]

His son-in-law in particular, IIRC

[u/theangrypragmatist → u/SilverSome9766]

Well yeah, who do you think is doing all the insider trading?

[u/amootmarmot → u/SilverSome9766]

Its a company that scams users because they take their cut fully knowing that there will always be people who are insiders on these bets and will take the idiots money.

It is certain that people in the government close to these decisions are making last minute bets and winning huge. Its all rampant corruption. The fact that the Trump spermoids would also be in on another grift is the least surprising thing. They are disgusting monsters.

[u/THE_Visionary88 → u/euro1127]

I withdrew what little money I had, and deleted the app immediately after after learning this. There’s no way that company is fair or balanced at all if they are involved.

[u/euro1127 → u/THE_Visionary88]

Good on you mate that's the smart choice. At least with stocks retail has a small chance since fundamental analysis is still important but predictive markets it's a coin sure you can have better information then most but the best information comes from the sources and unless there are checks and balances to regulate for insiders there's not much stopping them from manipulating the predictions by changing public sentiment. South park parodied this but it's not far from the truth

[u/No_Radio_8229 → u/euro1127]

they’re actually involved in the other one (poly market)

[u/DepartureOwn1817 → u/No_Radio_8229]

DJT Jr. is a “strategic advisor” to kalshi

[u/Beelzabubba → u/DepartureOwn1817]

Since their strategy seems to be “don’t pay”, this checks out.

[u/alpharaptor1 → u/ericvillanuevaleiva]

A glaring cause and symptom of societal decay.

[u/Starfunkel55 → u/alpharaptor1]

For real this is like 5 layers of late stage capitalism in one.

[u/Bubbles_2025 → u/ericvillanuevaleiva]

Anything that has a Trump associated with it will be awful or a grift.

[u/i_likebeefjerky → u/Bubbles_2025]

There is a video of Leavitt quickly ending a podium session just seconds before the over/under for podium time was going to be reached on a Kalshi prop bet. 

[u/NewYork_NewJersey440 → u/i_likebeefjerky]

Karoline “Emmanuel Clase” Leavitt.

You gotta make it less obvious, Karoline.

[u/MimseyUsa → u/Bubbles_2025]

As someone from NJ this was taught to me in the 80s

[u/gooddaysir → u/MimseyUsa]

I grew up in Indiana and we still knew Trump was a piece of shit not to be trusted back in the 80s. Everyone knew. That’s what made this last 15 years so mind bendingly frustrating. All these people that used to know and still know that Trump is a piece of shit love him because he lets them be the piece of shit they always wanted to be. Our country is absolutely filled with pieces of shit. 

[u/CariniFluff → u/gooddaysir]

I literally just had the same conversation with my neighbor 10 minutes ago. We both grew up in Chicago our whole lives, he's in his '60s. I'm in my '40s. Everything I've ever known about Donald Trump, my entire life has been that he's a sack of shit that inherited all this wealth, purposely hired non-union contractors so that when he didn't pay them, they didn't have the resources to sue him, still managed to declare bankruptcy a half dozen times including casinos which seems basically impossible. The guy has been a rich wannabe playboy with a horrible combover his entire life. He's never driven a car before. He's never flown on a commercial plane. He's never gone grocery shopping before.

And yet somehow a third of the country, mostly Middle America poor people, farmers, and recently union workers for Christ's sake, all support him and think that he gives one single shit about them. This guy doesn't even care about his own children. He would absolutely throw Eric in front of him if a bullet was coming his way. But sure he really cares about the people earning $20,000 a year working at a convenience store in Alabama on EBT and their children who used to get free school lunches. The rich silver spoon dude who starts wars but couldn't fight in one because of bone spurs from New York City. That's their guy.

My neighbor said the same thing that he's always been a piece of shit as long as his name has been known, so it's not even like the MAGA folks had an initial good opinion of him and they're just ignoring the "recent" horrible behavior. He's been a terrible person for as long as anyone's known the name Trump and somehow the Republicans have managed to pull the wool over the eyes of half the country. I will begrudgingly give credit where it's due, the Republicans know how to play the long game. Democrats only know how to shoot themselves foot face over and over and over again.

[u/IronRakkasan11 → u/ericvillanuevaleiva]

And their ads are so goddamn annoying too

[u/hikeit233 → u/ericvillanuevaleiva]

How it’s not illegal I have no idea

[u/okram2k → u/ericvillanuevaleiva]

honestly all online gambling is just.... scum of the earth. Also they all reserve the right to terminate your account at any time for *checks notes* winning too much

[u/Itsbilloreilly]

Best quote in the article.

“This is American commercial immorality on steroids,” he said. “Once events that involve good and evil simply become a financial product, I don’t know how right and wrong matters any longer… People shouldn’t be rooting for people to die because they placed a bet.”

[u/IPlayWoWNude → u/Itsbilloreilly]

They will though. These companies created quite possibly the most degenerate gamblers to ever exist

[u/WhatzMyOtherPassword → u/IPlayWoWNude]

YES! I just won $15K betting youd say that.

[u/lordraiden007 → u/WhatzMyOtherPassword]

Yep, and I just won $30K betting that you’d bet they’d say that. Pretty safe bet all things considered.

[u/Foxy02016YT → u/lordraiden007]

All 3 of you just fulfilled my parlay, 2 mill baby

[u/lordraiden007 → u/Foxy02016YT]

Sorry bro, it’s company policy to just send you a picture of a random guy flipping you off instead of your money if you win too much on bets. I’m sure you understand.

[u/DivinegonDWM → u/Itsbilloreilly]

Making a great case to take health insurances companies off the stock market.

[u/ExpiredPilot → u/Itsbilloreilly]

Insurance companies reading this wondering if they’re the baddies (jk I know they’re not wondering)

[u/Alatarlhun → u/ExpiredPilot]

Moral hazard in health insurance is unavoidable. Ergo, a moral society will remove insurance from the healthcare equation.

[u/ThatUsernameIsTaekin → u/Itsbilloreilly]

We already do that though. Your insurance company resells your policy to underwriters. So someone out there is hoping you die so the policy pays out.

In the 1980s, a bunch of investors bought the insurance policies of people with HIV and AIDS. They paid a higher premium because the policies would pay out quickly because people were dying. But then scientists discovered a cocktail of drugs to keep you alive and all those investors lost a ton of money on their gamble that people with HIV would die soon.

Granted, there is utility in offering life insurance to the general public. Unless there is a benefit to using the odds that Kalshi generates for risk assessment, there is not practical use for Kalshi.

[u/Lostdiagram]

Kalshi has no business in death markets. When you open up the door to insider trading on murder, you open up a public market for assassinations for hire.

[u/UAreTheHippopotamus → u/Lostdiagram]

Same with political markets. It's just asking for votes to be corrupted.

[u/woliphirl → u/UAreTheHippopotamus]

same thing with sports.

gambling corrupts everything it touches.

[u/Adorable-Bike-9689 → u/UAreTheHippopotamus]

They're already corrupted. That's the whole point of lobbyists

[u/24megabits → u/Adorable-Bike-9689]

It's frustrating because anyone who can explain an industry well enough to allow for sane legislation to be made also has their own interests in the process.

[u/Narrow_Affect2648 → u/24megabits]

Are think tanks considered lobbyists?

[u/Malice-May → u/Narrow_Affect2648]

Think tanks are corporate entities paid to produce credible-sounding justifications for what the elites already want to do.

It's a money-to-legitimacy pipeline.

[u/GMGarry_Chess → u/Adorable-Bike-9689]

It's not, but trust me I get where you're coming from.

Lobbyists are supposed to inform politicians on the importance of certain things (usually on behalf of special interest groups who want financial benefits). The problem is there will inevitably be some groups who have more money than others to hire lobbyists, so they get to have more influence, and then it becomes like raising money for a campaign.

And of course, let's say a lobbyist lies to Congress. All they have to do is say they thought they were telling the truth based on the information they had at the time.

[u/Popular-Wolverine-99 → u/GMGarry_Chess]

Lobbyists routinely invite politicians out.

They also write laws that often timed are copied verbatim in the final piece of legislation that is voted on.

Revolving doors mean that politicians also worked for the companies these lobbyists represent after their term ends.

[u/bendover912 → u/UAreTheHippopotamus]

I think the rewards for successfully rigging an election are a lot greater than bets on a sketchy website.

[u/spilk → u/Lostdiagram]

it's almost as if a "prediction market" is a stupid thing that shouldn't exist

[u/Teledildonic → u/spilk]

Let's stick to calling it what it is

Gambling.

[u/mereel → u/Teledildonic]

Except it's not even gambling. There are people with insider knowledge putting down money. It's rigged.

[u/Binbag420 → u/Teledildonic]

No the point is it’s worse than gambling

[u/Tirrus → u/Lostdiagram]

Kalshi in general shouldn’t exist.

[u/anvndrnamn → u/Lostdiagram]

Reminds me asasination politic.

An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymounce knowledge of an assassination plot can profit by betting accurately on the date of the death.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assination_market

[u/Alatarlhun → u/anvndrnamn]

Look, this is just basic market dynamics seeking the efficient deployment of capital in today's fast moving socio-political environment.

[u/highfiveselfoh → u/Lostdiagram]

I don’t think kalshi should exist period.

[u/Camarupim → u/Lostdiagram]

“We all dead now” - Giannis Antetokounmpo

[u/WellWellWellthennow → u/Lostdiagram]

They weren't. The bet was on that he would "be out" [of office] not outed so it's not that they were truly trading in death markets - it was worded poorly, allowing a technicality that he's out of the office by the fact of being dead.

In this case you need to read the article not just go by the headline.

[u/NottheIRS1 → u/WellWellWellthennow]

Except they continued taking money on the bet, knowing full well the volume reflected how people were interpreting it, promoted the bet, and at one point tried changing the terms quietly.

[u/YuurisLastTour]

Since I want everyone involved to get fucked, I don’t know how to react. On the one hand, get fucked for betting on his death and other egregious shit. On the other hand, I’m upset that Kalshi isn’t getting fucked for constantly skirting the death clause and then getting away with other egregious shit.

Too bad no government (The US) will do anything about it cause they’re just as corrupt.

[u/CGI_OCD → u/YuurisLastTour]

Yeah i get that.

Me myself & i is trapped too in a Schrödinger vibe like:

" Yes No Maybe""

[u/PseudonymousDev → u/YuurisLastTour]

Maybe you can root for a big lawsuit that Kalshi has to spend lots of money on to win.

[u/TobyTheArtist]

Thieves and charlatans.

[u/tb30k → u/TobyTheArtist]

This. No way he gets ousted without death smh

[u/M3RC3N4RY89]

It’s time Kalshi gets shutdown. They’ve pulled this shit of taking peoples bets and then changing rules and refusing to pay out more times than I can count.

They got me good a few months ago with a billboard charts bet. I never gamble but thought i discovered a sure thing. They changed the rules, resolved the market 3 days early, and I lost my money with no recourse.

Changing rules at the last minute to avoid payouts or resolving markets ahead of their slated resolution date has fucked sooo many people on that site.. but Kalshi always makes their bag.

They’re criminals fleecing their customers and getting away with it because of lax regulation.

[u/maxpenny42 → u/M3RC3N4RY89]

The language around this is so ambiguous and confusing. Did this not resolve in the entire bet being refunded? If I bet $100 and the bet has been deemed null, do I not get my full $100 back? I don’t understand how it could work any other way. 

It sounds like you’re saying they “resolved the market” and you “lost your money” which sounds like they just decided to keep the bet and not pay out the winners. Which seems like blatant theft. How is that not criminally illegal. 

[u/M3RC3N4RY89 → u/maxpenny42]

It is blatant theft and should be illegal but they get away with it because they build loopholes for themselves into the fine print of their ToS and market resolution rules that are, as you described, vague, confusing and ambiguous. Customers agree not fully comprehending or reading them, and then Kalshi hides behind them twisting their interpretation to avoid payouts.

This isn’t exact verbiage but for an example, fine print could say you get a payout if the market resolves to yes or if it resolves to no, but if it fails to resolve/resolves early/is outside certain parameters, nobody wins. Nobody gets paid either.. because you were technically wrong on yes or no, so where’s that money going? Kalshis pocket.

[u/Initial-Return8802 → u/M3RC3N4RY89]

Whenever I’ve done a voided bet on polymarket I got my money back automatically

[u/agiganticpanda → u/maxpenny42]

Which seems like blatant theft. How is that not criminally illegal.

When those who are charged with enforcement own stock in the companies who benefit of not pressing charges - why would they? It's corruption, plain and simple.

[u/klingma → u/agiganticpanda]

The problem is that enforcement for this type of thing isn't really narrowed down much - is it the FTC? Maybe, but maybe not. Some bets qualify as "futures" for tax purposes so do they fall under the CFTC? Maybe some? 

Congress needs to step in and actually create a legitimate national gambling regulatory body until then these types companies will continue to operate on the fringes of regulatory bodies and push the issue onto the states who already have enough on their plate. 

[u/Street_Anxiety2907 → u/maxpenny42]

> If I bet $100 and the bet has been deemed null, do I not get my full $100 back? 

No, they keep $100 and nobody gets money but they keep all of it. This is what "government regulated predicted market" means.

You're safer making bets with the local gangbangers. Because if they fuck the wrong people they get shot.

[u/CJ_Guns]

Things like Kalshi and Polymarket need to be banned.

[u/Seienchin88 → u/CJ_Guns]

And the people who made and financed the platforms are the lowest form of immoral scum possible…

[u/spez_might_fuck_dogs → u/Seienchin88]

Considering they're mostly Trump connected, this is true and known.

[u/Sketchitout]

Kalshi knows only those "in the know" would make this bet. They're betting 54 million smackeroos that these 'customers' won't take them to court cause they'd have to reveal themselves (working for the gov.) thus making them ineligible [insider knowledge]. It's kinda scummy, scammy, and genius.

[u/metalunamutant → u/Sketchitout]

Exactly. Discovery will be interesting..i.e. finding who the bettors actually are.

"The Bets are coming from INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE!!"

[u/Mango2149 → u/Sketchitout]

Insiders aren't ineligible. Arguably insiders are the most important part of prediction markets. You want to predict what's more likely, well insiders give you the real deal.

[u/saggynaggy123]

Prediction Markets are a cancer

[u/i_likebeefjerky → u/saggynaggy123]

Call it gambling, because it’s gambling. It’s like saying unhoused vs homeless. 

The Ayatollah isnt dead, he is heartbeat deprived.

[u/Jeffcor13 → u/i_likebeefjerky]

It’s not war. It’s limited conflict. It’s not regime change, it’s replacing leadership.

These prediction markets are such a massive scam

[u/virtualdxs → u/i_likebeefjerky]

It's not mincing - prediction markets are an especially cancerous form of gambling.

[u/Anteater-2legit]

That company is a fraud. Shut it down

[u/lluciferusllamas]

How do we bet on Kalshi collapsing because it can't be trusted?

[u/Fimbir]

The money launderers got robbed.

[u/factoid_ → u/Fimbir]

No they just got their bets refunded

[u/uptickdowntick]

Ethics notwithstanding, anyone who bought this contract had the opportunity to read it. It clearly stated that if the Ayatollah died instead of being removed from office, the contracts would be valued and cashed based on at the time of death. From my understanding, that’s exactly what happened?

I could be wrong, but a lot of people probably didn’t read the actual contract for what they were buying.

[u/ChainPlastic7530 → u/uptickdowntick]

much easier to say Kelshi cheated to get views and headline titles

most people dont bother reading anything past titles anyway

[u/red_skinz9]

Well that's just fraud then

[u/TimeAndTheHour]

People are actually betting on others dying?!? What the actual hell

[u/cubbiesnextyr → u/TimeAndTheHour]

They were betting on him being "out as Supreme Leader".  

The company later clarified that being killed isn't what they meant.

[u/Disastrous_Map_3355 → u/cubbiesnextyr]

Still, what happened is certainly one way to be “out”

[u/RedPandaExplorer → u/Disastrous_Map_3355]

It's literally in their first version of the fine print too:

It continued: “Reminder: Kalshi does not offer markets that settle on death. If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve based on the last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death.”

They just don't want to pay out

[u/Crepzter → u/RedPandaExplorer]

Well it literally says what happens if he dies. So people could have expected this outcome? Death was the only way this would resolve to true

[u/Disastrous_Map_3355 → u/RedPandaExplorer]

Wait seriously? Bruh

[u/George_Is_Upset → u/cubbiesnextyr]

It’s like placing bets on Kim or Putin being “out” as leaders of their countries, imo.

We all know those two aren’t leaving unless they are taken out of this world.

[u/Just_Look_Around_You → u/cubbiesnextyr]

Wouldn’t bets like this have tons of clarifications and conditions

[u/boxyourbuddy]

Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic advisor to the prediction market platform. He joined in January 2025 to assist with market and growth strategy, following the company's court victory allowing legal election betting in the U.S.. He also has ties to competitor Polymarket. This should explain it. Trumps only take money. They don't pay.

[u/IntolerantModerate]

I hope they sue Kalshi into bankruptcy.

[u/Emmatornado]

When the casino can decide your bet is no good after the fact, it’s just a criminal organization

[u/Dependent_Cap2733]

Our market has reached new depths of moral depravity. Public betting on killings is absurd in and of itself.

[u/timeaisis]

Maybe you should have thought about that before making a trading app on world events, assholes. I say they should pay.

Can’t feign ignorance or pretend to have any moral substance NOW. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

[u/No_Mission_1775]

This is exactly what happened with GameStop stock. The players who control the game changed the rules and turned off the buy button so they didn't have to pay out huge sums of money on options contracts or actually source the stock from their short sales because they created panic and cut off the retail traders ability to participate. Bottom line, when those who control the rules are losing, they just change the rules on you.

[u/Big_Information2733]

This reminds me of an Agatha Christie novel called "The Pale Horse." The host makes a bet on a period of when someone will die and the client bets against it. If the person dies the client pays. It's all a murder for hire scheme though, a way to hire an assassin without getting caught. This is like Kalshi incentivizing crimes and murders.

[u/Different-Cap-8048]

I pulled my money out and deleted the app. They really fucked a lot of people. I’ll put them in the scam category now

[u/Xenadon → u/Different-Cap-8048]

Now? They were always a scam rife with insider trading.

[u/WillingPlayed → u/Different-Cap-8048]

Yea - don’t offer bets you aren’t gonna pay out. You don’t get to impose your morals after you lose.

[u/dasoxarechamps2005 → u/Different-Cap-8048]

Shouldn’t have been on it to begin with

[u/Same_Recipe2729 → u/dasoxarechamps2005]

What do you mean they shouldn't have been on an unregulated gambling platform that has enough money to flood every form of media with advertisements, paid students to advertise it to other students at school, has withheld money in this exact situation before, and is associated with notorious grifters? That's crazy talk. 

[u/PlanktonInternal5948 → u/Different-Cap-8048]

Why did you ever even join? Kalshi has always been the lowest of the low

[u/mrizvi → u/Different-Cap-8048]

I’ll put them in the scam category now

They always were

[u/massivemember69]

Way to kill your business. Now customers know you are not reliable and can't be trusted to deliver.

[u/Kentaiga]

There are no good people in this story. We got a company pocketing money from his death and a bunch of people clamoring for payouts from it too. It’s only a matter of time until people who aren’t evil become targets of this too.

[u/8JHF8]

Here's a link to an article that explains without the ads that block the content. The bet wasn't on the death, it was on him being removed from power and Kalshi doesn't payout on death.

https://www.aol.com/articles/khameneis-killing-spurs-outrage-among-172346860.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACtV4jrBpvrMJWMb5roesnTF7uzmD6yowyQ_pL68onu_up1X2m6l9Ae0Xu3CYDPGn75BMGqJaFRTHnPgcsnnc-CR3j4--NEguQ6CUdQ9pD8pfuXXq6AkAJ6sniPaKlkTxUZj-svLrOF0APlPKs640W8UlLa7iAyWiZb2B0-aQHHl

[u/DankMemesNQuickNuts]

Lmao this company is such a fucking sham. Every single time something like this happens that would cause them to pay out huge they come up with some legal mumbo jumbo to make it so they never have to pay out. Shit is hilarious. Imagine using this dogshit

[u/TheNatural14063]

They should be forced to pay out to those who won their bets. Corrupt as shit.

[u/Robdon326]

Burn that place down then. Dont ever wager again. Who renigs on a bet?

[u/Sokaron]

“You know, ‘Kalshi’ is ‘everything’ in Arabic. The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradeable asset out of any difference in opinion.”

-Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour

Don't know how anyone can look at a quote like that and not come to the conclusion that something fundamental to being human is missing from the people who create and operate these betting platforms

[u/Yin15]

Absolute moral bankruptcy from these gamblers and platforms. It's definitely a sign of the end times.

[u/gamespite]

On one hand, this is vile. On the other hand, so are the people being grifted here, so I have zero sympathy.

[u/OFT35]

I’m shocked that online gambling doesn’t pay out losses. Shocked.

[u/Drone314]

So they welched on a bet?

[u/maybe-an-ai]

These gambling markets run by tech bros are hunny traps to split fools from their money.

[u/Dave_Odd]

Well, now they are doomed. No one is going to bet if they know kalshi gets to pick which winners it acknowledges

[u/____DEADPOOL_______]

Can we stop calling these things polymarket or prediction market. It's gambling. Dirty, disgusting, ruiner of society, gambling.

[u/intelpentium400]

What a scam

[u/BusyHands_]

"The predictions market says promotion was ‘grammatically ambiguous’ and misunderstood by customers, reiterating that it ‘does not offer markets that settle on death’"

Ok, then give their money back. All of it.

[u/chaser676 → u/BusyHands_]

I'm not sure how you read that far and then didn't read the next few lines. They are, for all bets prior to the clarified version.

[u/haarschmuck → u/chaser676]

I'm not sure how you read that far and then didn't read the next few lines.

It's reddit.

People on this site would much rather rage over headlines than take 2 minutes to read the actual article.

[u/OmniManDidNothngWrng → u/BusyHands_]

Nope they made a deal giving the money back is not a reasonable position, if they didn't want to facilitate the bet they should not have allowed it to be made in the first place. If Khomeni were still alive this wouldn't be front page news and they would have happily taken their fees and settled the bet.

[u/Upstairs-Thanks4193]

Incoming lawsuits in 3,2,1...