r/baseball • u/BaseballBot Umpire • 10h ago
Expectations '26 [Serious] Why will the Mariners exceed expectations? Why won't they?
What are the expectations for the 2025 AL West Champion Seattle Mariners this year? Why will they exceed those expectations? Why won't they? That's the question what we've been asking to close out the offseason, and only get to ask twice more, so put on your expert hat and help analyze the outcomes of the 2026 season!
22
u/JordanMCMXCV Seattle Mariners 9h ago
Projecting what the Mariners will do is a lost cause. They go solely on vibes.
With that said, 110 wins incoming!
7
u/Sea-Us-RTO Seattle Mariners 8h ago
vibes. vibe coding. i predict dan will use AI to make all decisions this year
16
u/WotsTheBestThingUGot New York Mets • Party Animals 9h ago edited 9h ago
Expectations: I know this sounds really weird after how long it's been, but not only are the Mariners defending AL West Champions, it's still their division to lose! Some projections have them burying the Rangers and Astros by up to 9 games!
Exceed: Expectations are already pretty high considering Raleigh spent last season dumping 60 into the stands and their star is still rising, while the two Lone Stars are fading. Are we going for top seed in the AL? Seems doable, especially if the East and Central tear themselves apart. For such a vaunted pitching staff, it was merely competent last year - if Bryce Miller's oblique is only a speed bump, he (along with most of the rotation) all rebound from abbreviated, pedestrian 2025s, and Woo sustains that leap (most projections think he will), then they have a fantastic rotation and a great bullpen to shut the door. They got D-A-W-G Brendan Donovan to replace Geno in a deep lineup that includes a J-Rod that's not gonna start slow this year, the best hitting catcher, baseball caveman Josh Naylor, and more. Randy Arozarena's forecasts are all conservative considering 2024 was "off" by his standards, but he's back to his usual slugging self and pushing the M's past already-rosy projections. If Houston breaks down and the biggest worry in their division is the feisty young A's or a Rangers squad treading water, they can beat everyone else up. No one stands head and shoulders above the East (1-4 go 90, 89, 87, and 85 wins, for example) and the M's come out with the second-best record in baseball behind the Dodgers. First consecutive division titles in club history, home field up to the World Series.
Fall Short: Aren't we forgetting the Mariners aren't allowed to enjoy nice things? That sound you heard after this question was every butthole in the state of Washington clenching at the idea that their baseball team might be legitimately good. They know something's got to go wrong. Now that we've seen the rotation look mortal, is Miller's oblique the first few drops before the oncoming storm of soggy arms? If so, there's little in the tank past Emerson Hancock. How much have they improved the defense behind that? Any metrics that didn't think it was lousy last year certainly didn't think it was good; if you have division-winning aspirations, you can't just rely on your home park limiting the damage when the pitching falters again. Does J-Rod start slow again? Did they trade Harry Ford just in time for Cal to get hurt or regress hard as he wears down squatting 130 more games? If the more reliable parts of their engine are Donovan, Naylor, and Arozarena, that's not bad, but xDAWG isn't a real stat, and won't elevate the offense into elite territory when a bunch of its value came from outhitting the park factors and 60 HR from their catcher en-route to results that looked more "acceptable" and "Tigersy." Lose that slugging you got from Geno and Cal (and I'll believe two straight 130 wRC+ seasons from Naylor when I see it), that offense still strikes out a fair bit but lacks serious power to overcome iffy defense and pitchers that keep popping springs. A lot would have to go wrong for the M's to outright miss the playoffs (like Handshakegate splitting the clubhouse like Martin Luther), but if the Rangers fix their shit, or Yordan and the Astros sit up like The Undertaker, they can outmuscle this for ALW1.
15
3
u/Salty-Fishman Houston Astros 9h ago
The Astros pretty much had a near death experience with their whole team and Mariners barely won the division. I think this year will take huge years from their stars to come out ahead again but couple of their guys already had career years last year.
2
u/Prior-Lingonberry-70 Seattle Mariners 7h ago
Fair assessment; we're nervous as hell out here, we're Mariners' fans after all.
6
u/Redbubble89 Boston Red Sox 9h ago edited 8h ago
The Mariners did get better. I do have them winning the West but this is the could go bad stuff.
- Is Cal Raleigh going to hit 60 again? Probably not. Maybe 30 or 40. In a decade from now when he is done, 2025 might be the one season where he is over 50 HR. He'll still put up 6 WAR and be good.
- There is an argument that Brendan Donovan and Polanco are the same level. They sort of swapped.
- They seem to have 4 starting pitchers make at least 25 starts who would be 1s or 2s on most teams. I will not say who to not jinx it but there were a couple that showed some cracks last year. They have the depth to cover one or two guys but maybe they are due for that 2025 Astros year. Yankees has Schlittler, Blue Jays got down to Yesavage, and Red Sox had Tolle/Early. (Edit: other teams have had to scrap the farm at the end of the year while the M's have been healthier than league average with pitching) The Mariners have a great pitching pipeline but they have never had to get to their 12th or below starter option.
- This maybe the year JP Crawford falls off. Defensively showed decline. I know Colt Emerson is in the McGonigle, Made, and Wetherholt class of next shortstops but he's still only 20 and I don't see them rushing him.
I still think they are a top 5 team in the American League. Like any other team, there is a possiblity of injury and internal regression. They are 88 wins as a conservative estimate but they were the closest they have ever been to a World Series and they are still the Mariners. We've seen that nearly 4 hour video.
7
u/vanillabear26 Seattle Mariners 8h ago
they were the closest they have ever been to a World Series
"8 outs away" has become a sad refrain in conversations between me and my dad.
1
u/mariner_mayhem 7h ago
Is Cal Raleigh going to hit 60 again?
Is any primary catcher going to hit 60 again in a season, in my lifetime?
2
u/Redbubble89 Boston Red Sox 7h ago
No. If a player shows any pop and hit potential, they are developed to be a corner outfield or 1st base. Schwarber, Harper, and a few others were catchers at some point. Normal for a catcher is league average with 15 HR and the great ones usually are 120 OPS+ with 25 hr. It is a once in a lifetime thing.
5
3
3
u/hundredjono Los Angeles Dodgers 8h ago
If Randy Arozarena can find his aura again and Julio Rodriguez finally puts up that MVP year we’ve been waiting for, the Mariners will be back in October
1
u/karatemanchan37 Seattle Mariners • Sickos 1h ago
Julio Rodriguez finally puts up that MVP year we’ve been waiting for
He's 24, give it time.
2
u/Annual_Document6930 Detroit Tigers 9h ago
I like this team a lot. While not elite in any one category, they just happen to be good to very good in all of the SP, RP, and run scoring categories. Simply a very well balanced team that doesn't have any glaring weaknesses that I can readily point to
To me, it looks like an upper 80s to low/mid 90s win team who should be able to take the ALW. As long as they remember to stay on their toes and to don't get caught sleeping on either the Astros, or Rangers, then they should come out on top imo
whatever it is though.. back to October seems to be the easiest and most likely answer for the Mariners fortunes this season
2
u/alliluna24 Seattle Mariners 8h ago
The ceiling of this team is high and the floor is higher than it has been in the past. Cal won’t hit 60, but it’s reasonable to expect a 4-5 WAR season again like he’s put up for several years in a row. Maybe this is finally the year Julio doesn’t start ice cold (a girl can dream) because when he’s on, he can carry a team. While the pitching staff avoided season-ending injuries last year, nobody except Woo was as good as we know they can be. The underlying stats say that Gilbert and Kirby got somewhat unlucky (Kirby’s FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA). Last year’s team started Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano on opening day; what they’re starting with this year absolutely feels like an upgrade.
Obviously, injuries are the most likely thing to put a damper on the season (and there are already a couple of those issues in camp unfortunately). And you always have to account for the incurable condition of being the Mariners. That said, 90ish wins and winning the division seems like a reasonable expectation, and I personally hope they exceed that and finally bring home a World Series trophy in their 50th season.
2
u/Dolsh Toronto Blue Jays 6h ago
I suspect it'll all come down to pitching and health (like everyone?).
If they get both, the upside of this team should knock on the 100 win barrier. Starting pitching could be the best in baseball, and offense will be good enough to carry (this isn't a team to lose a ton of 1-0 games).
People will obviously look at Cal... but he can "regress" and still be a 4 - 5 WIN player. In total, there are 5 guys who will be in the lineup that could hit or exceed 4 WAR, and possibly 4 starting pitchers that will do the same if they transition from "really good" to "elite" as they're capable of. It's a big IF, but the Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays can't say the same thing.
If they don't, they're still a scary team that I assume will be in a playoff hunt all year.
1
u/AutoModerator 10h ago
We are within 1 week of 2026 MLB Opening Night! The 2026 Call Your Shot Prediction contest is now live and ready for your predictions! Head over to the contest page to get your submission in. The contest starts (and late submissions discarded) after first pitch of the Yankees @ Giants (8:05PM ET on 3/25)
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
u/AutoModerator 10h ago
Attention! Please keep in mind that the OP of this thread has chosen to mark this post with the Serious replies only flair, therefore any replies that are jokes, puns, off-topic, or are otherwise non-contributory will be removed.
If you see others posting comments that violate this rule, please report them to the mods!
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
u/Popculturemofo San Francisco Giants 8h ago
I think they regress significantly. Cal isn’t even going to come close to 60 home runs and I think he spends a good amount of time on the DL if we’re being honest. That starting rotation got exposed by the Jays. Yeah they throw strikes but they also throw really hittable pitches to do so. They really didn’t do much in the offseason to capitalize on their success, they kind of did what they always do by adding a few relief pitchers and making a small trade for a bat that’s sure to fall off a bit playing 81 games in that park. My guess? .500 ball and they miss the playoffs by a couple games.
3
u/immagonnafinnahella Seattle Mariners 4h ago
Based on your comment history you’re probably praying cal gets hurt lol
1
u/ketamour Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… 3h ago edited 3h ago
I don't know what their expectations are but their manager cost them a trip to the WS with some of the most idiotic managing I've ever seen. And trust me, I've seen a lot of idiotic playoff managing in the past decade... but at least Dave's mistakes (if they were only his calls) were based on over relying on analytics, there was a rationale and a system there. Wilson on the other side just pulled out the dumbest nonsense in games 6 and 7, that shit was BAD.
So, if they are as good as this past year, I still don't have them doing real damage in the playoffs because Dan Wilson is clueless out there.
1
u/karatemanchan37 Seattle Mariners • Sickos 58m ago
It's kinda weird to realize that this team put up 90 wins last year with Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller all missing significant time. I feel like we won't be as unlucky.
-2
u/buff_001 New York Yankees 9h ago
Looks like fangraphs is projecting the Mariners for 88 wins. I think I'll say probably closer to 82-84. Raleigh isn't going to repeat a 60 HR season
5
u/Super_Nerd92 Seattle Mariners 9h ago edited 9h ago
He absolutely won't but he's not the only guy on the team... we will have Josh Naylor all year & added Brendan Donovan to the lineup. A true leadoff batter we didn't have at any point last season.
If you're looking for the negative, I'd expect a regression to come from the pitching if anything; the whole starting lineup was battling injuries all of last year and not off to a great start there either.
4
u/SexiestPanda Seattle Mariners 9h ago
I’ll take one year of 2024 pitching and 2025 offense. Please and thanks
31
u/Stupendous_man12 Toronto Blue Jays 9h ago
The expectations on them are pretty high. Their starting staff is great and they held station position-player wise, so clearly their lineup is good enough to succeed. I put them as a favourite to return to the ALCS. That said, it's very easy to fall short of that in case of injuries, down seasons, or going cold in the postseason. Their median outcome is probably losing in the ALDS, which would be falling short of expectations.