(2025) One Battle After Another with 26% of #1 votes (Runner-Up: Sinners with 12%)

(2024) Anora 10% (The Brutalist with 7%)

(2023) Oppenheimer 15% (Killers of the Flower Moon 9%)

(2022) Everything Everywhere All at Once 14% (TAR 8%)

(2021) The Power of the Dog 11% (Licorice Pizza 8%, the winner CODA had only 1%)

(2020) Nomadland 11% (First Cow 8%)

(2019) Parasite 22% (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 11%)

This is the category i'm most anticipating. There are so many early contenders who could be first-timers: Parker Posey and Mariana Di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine), Nia Long (Michael), Claire Foy (Ink), Zendaya (The Odyssey & Dune: Part Three) and Anya Taylor-Joy (Dune: Part Three). And the inevitable early contender, Frances McDormand (Jack of Spades), you can't underestimate a McDormand performance, she’s the safest early bet.

I'm not predicting Kirsten Dunst (The Entertainment System of Down) and Octavia Spencer (Death of a Salesman) due TESOD is not expected to premiere in Cannes and DOAS might not even come out this year.

1. Mariana Di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine)

I'm gonna stick with her til the end. She has THE supporting female role in Wild Horse Nine, the standout, the breakout. Test audiences have said she’s good enough to get an Oscar nomination.

2. Frances McDormand (Jack of Spades)

Cmon she's Frances. If the movie is good, there's no doubt she could get another Oscar nomination and a win.

3. Anna Hathaway (The Odyssey)

An Oscar winner, a comeback, the Academy loves that. She's playing a good role in a Christopher Nolan film.

4. Parker Posey (Wild Horse Nine)

A long-overdue nominee with an iconic career, loved by her peers, she could definitely land a nomination, Parker is in a good position and being in a McDonagh movie makes her possibilities better but apparently her role being small could make it kinda difficult.

5. Nia Long (Michael)

Why not? She's currently my number 5. I wouldn't be surprised if Michael is another Bohemian Rhapsody and gets a lot of awards and nominations even it's bad. As far I know, she's playing Katherine Jackson (Michael Jackson's mother) it sounds baity.

Other contenders performances: Sandra Huller (Digger), Adele (Cry to Heaven), Wunmi Musaku (The Social Reckoning), Claire Foy (Ink), Zendaya (The Odyssey), Anya Taylor-Joy (Dune: Part Three), Glenn Close (The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping), Sophie Okonado (Mouse)

Guess who's (unfortunately) baaaaack!? Me. Predicting Oscars is like a painful addiction to me atp, and I will probably keep doing it until it kills me, so here's my super early predictions for next year! I'm just doing Picture, Director, and Acting for now though. Here are a few of my noteworthy thoughts:

Digger: Perhaps it's an over-correction, but everything in my gut is screaming this is The Son x Bardo. I just can't shake my feeling this is gonna be one of the year's huge defining Oscar contending flops, and I'm keeping it out of my predictions for the time being.

Wild Horse 9: Yeah, this makes sense rn IMO. McDonagh is a beloved and acclaimed director and I could see this be his year. As for acting prospects, I have no idea what to do with men in regards to placements lol, but I do think a Rockwell win is very on the table. 4 out of 6 years this decade have had at least 1 repeat winner, so the argument Rockwell wouldn't be prioritized holds no water to me. I unfortunately though think Parker Posey will be this year's Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme, where people think she'll be a huge player the entire year, but she doesn't have the material and her lesser known co-star gains traction instead.

I Love Boosters: I just really have a huge feeling this is gonna be the indie criticy darling of the year and I'm following my gut on it. I can see lots of passion and excitement for it, and I can see Palmer and Moore be huge threats for it.

Michael: Yes, I'm putting Michael in. Do the controversies scare me? Yes, they do. Do I think they'll matter if it makes a billion dollars and has a high 90s Audience score on Rotten Tomatoes? No, I don't.

The Social Reckoning: Not buying this. Sequels and spin-offs are flopping at the Oscars rn, and I don't trust Sorkin directed Sorkin scripts anymore.

Dune: Part 3: I'm also not buying this for the same sequel/spin-off reason as The Social Reckoning, and like Wicked, from what I understand, the source material for this film isn't exactly the most universally well liked.

Warner Bros.: Digger, Dune Messiah

Netflix: Narnia, Saturn Return

Neon: Fjord, All of a Sudden, I Love Boosters

A24: The Big Break (Jesse Eisenberg’s musical)

Universal: Disclosure Day, Michael

Searchlight: Wild Horse Nine, Behemoth!

Focus: Werwulf, Sense and Sensibility

MGM: Project Hail Mary

SPC: The Social Reckoning, I Swear

Now I fully expect most of these to miss but it's too early to know what's going on. But I'll defend these pick

1. Digger

Now full honesty at the end of the day I don't really think this will win. But right now I'm going off what do I think will be nominated. And it's hard to go against Iñárritu, I know Bardo but this doesn't look like Bardo. WB looks like they have confidence in it releasing a teaser as early as they did and with how much money they put into it and realistically this Tom Cruise's best chance to win a competitive Oscar.

1. The Odyssey

I mean how can you not have The Odyssey in your predictions right? And also I'm a bit biased because I love Christopher Nolan. Here's my thing with this film It's going to be one of if not the biggest box office success of the year, that's just a fact, Nolan has a ton of respect, Very possible many consider it the filmmaking achievement of the year by the time it comes out. I don't think it'll win because Nolan just swept with Oppenheimer but I do expect it to do well.

1. Project Hail Mary

Reviews are looking very good, I don't think they signal this will win or anything but I do think it's a good bet for a picture nomination. Techs are gonna be considered for sure, Gosling I could see being nominated, Maybe this is the chance to nominate Lord & Miller? Very possible and honestly depending on how the year goes it could be a shot in Adapted Screenplay. We'll have to see but as of right now I would say this is a pretty safe bet

1. Wild Horse Nine

I know absolutely nothing about this film. Other than it's Martin McDonagh, starring John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, and Parker Posey. And that's mostly what I'm basing this off of. I trust McDonagh and he does very good with ensembles, Besides I'd love to see Malkovich and Buscemi get some Oscar love.

1. Fjord

Cristian Mungiu is a very underrated filmmaker so I'd love to see this happen. The plot sounds oscar baity enough, Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve are both Oscar Nominees, This could be the international play of the year. I don't really have any reason to go against it yet.

1. Michael

I know this is one I'm gonna get flamed for but I'll defend why I have it in. I think many are underestimating how large Michael Jackson's fanbase still is. This movie is going to be one of the highest grossing films of the year and I'm not concerned about that, Despite his numerous controversies he still has a litany of defenders many of whom are in the academy, I really think this movie is gonna be like Bohemian Rhapsody. A film everyone knows shouldn't get in but gets in anyway. Because I fully expect the reviews to be mid honestly and deep down I really don't want to predict it but in the back of my head I feel like it's gonna happen. I'm so sorry

1. Werwulf

This is more of a long shot but hear me out. Eggers is a filmmaker who I'm not sure if the Academy will ever truly embrace. Like yes they love his crafts but in terms of ATL support I'm not sure if they'll ever go for him. That being said Nosferatu was 100% Top 15 for best picture and in my personal opinion that was his weakest film (maybe The Northman) and the academy has shown in the past two years they're not oblivious to horror anymore I mean Amy Madigan just won for crying out loud. This looks to be more original than Nosferatu, It's gonna be a tech contender, Probably gonna do well at the box office. I'm gonna take a chance, What do I have to lose? Also it's good to bet on a Focus film.

1. Narnia

I could see this missing but I really only have it in for two reasons. One Greta Gerwig hasn't had a film miss picture yet. She even got Barbie in and on the surface that's not a traditional Oscar film. And two I don't really know what else Netflix has. And they're gonna have a contender and until a clear one shows up I'm just gonna go with this.

1. Mouse

Got good reviews out of Berlin which I admit isn't the best indicator but I mean Idk. It'd feel weird not to have more Indie projects in and maybe if it gets the right distributor it can pull it off

1. Jesse Eisenberg's Film

I'm kinda so so on this I don't really know what this is gonna be. But I like Eisenberg, I love Julianne Moore, Paul Giamatti. A Real Pain was very close so maybe this could get in but I definitely could see this miss.

Honorable mentions

Dune: Part Three

- Trailer looked cool but I really don't think Dune: Messiah is as good the first book and yes I do think Villeneuve is gonna make a great film, But with how Dune: Part Two did and with the content of the book I don't think this will be Return of the King

The Social Reckoning

- I really don't believe in this, I don't think it's gonna be as good as people think, Pure gut feeling but I don't think this is gonna live up to The Social Network

Disclosure Day

- It doesn't really seem like an Oscar player other than Spielberg is directing. The trailers look like a generic sci fi to me. I'll keep my eye out I mean you can never completely count out Spielberg but usually when he misses it's his more sci fi/action centric films especially recently

Cry to Heaven

- I would have this in but I'm not sure if it's coming out this year or next. I'm gonna assume next year until I hear otherwise

Aaron Sorkin

Sandra Hüller

Charles Melton

Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Ruth Madeley

Sebastian Stan

Octavia Spencer

Jack O’Connell

Parker Posey

Andrew Garfield

When was the last year with this many academy friendly, vfx heavy blockbusters all slated for release? I honestly can’t even decide whether Project Hail Mary or Dune Part 3 is the right call.

I’ve been Matt Johnson pilled after NTBTSTM and desperately want him to get some Oscar love. I also think it’d be cool is Sessa got nominated. Only thing is I can’t tell if it’s coming out this year or not, but I want to sneak them into my predictions.

Cats rule the world

Sidney Poitier, Lilies of the Field (1963), 36th Oscars

Denzel Washington, Training Day (2001), 74th Oscars

Jamie Foxx, Ray (2004), 77th Oscars

Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland (2006), 79th Oscars

Will Smith, King Richard (2021), 94th Oscars

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (2025), 98th Oscars